Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,232$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(370 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,164.6}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,164.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $96$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(11 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $169$ on 2020-05-19

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,618$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(7.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,850.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,850.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,891$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(280 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,861.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,861.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,027$ on 2020-05-19

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $226,699$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(3.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{221,223.7}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(221,223.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,169$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(4.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,194.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(31,194.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65,129$ on 2020-05-19

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,528,568$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,551,243.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,551,243.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $91,921$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(7.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,286.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(93,286.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,147,255$ on 2020-05-19

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $250,138$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259,269.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(259,269.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,422$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(3.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,733.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,733.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $213,617$ on 2020-05-19

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,799$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,867.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,867.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,743$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(307 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,846.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,846.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,085$ on 2020-05-19

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $177,778$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(3.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{170,069.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(170,069.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,081$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,001.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,001.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,016$ on 2020-05-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Slovenia recovered 98%
New Zealand recovered 96%
Luxembourg recovered 95%
Switzerland recovered 93%
Korea, South recovered 90%
Austria recovered 89%
Australia recovered 89%
Taiwan* recovered 89%
Croatia recovered 87%
Andorra recovered 84%
Germany recovered 81%
Tunisia recovered 79%
Niger recovered 76%
Slovakia recovered 73%
Denmark recovered 72%
Israel recovered 70%
Cuba recovered 68%
Japan recovered 66%
Turkey recovered 57%
Uruguay recovered 56%
Lithuania recovered 54%
Malaysia recovered 53%
Czechia recovered 51%
Italy recovered 40%
Georgia recovered 35%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 34%
Serbia recovered 28%
Romania recovered 24%
San Marino recovered 15%
Jamaica recovered 14%
Morocco recovered 12%
Singapore recovered 12%
France recovered 8%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,063$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(5.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(120.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,624.4}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,624.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,638$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,638.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,638.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $115$ on 2020-05-19

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,467$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(440 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,451.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,451.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(17.7 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-05-19

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,503$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(393 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,479.1}{1 + 10^{-0.098 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,479.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(4.92 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.0}{1 + 10^{-0.098 (t - 20.6)}}\) (asimptote \(21.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35$ on 2020-05-19

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,958$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(882 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,794.9}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,794.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(21.7 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(102.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $131$ on 2020-05-19