Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,232$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(370 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,164.6}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,164.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $96$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(11 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $169$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,618$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(7.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,850.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,850.9\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,891$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(280 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,861.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,861.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,027$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $226,699$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(3.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{221,223.7}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(221,223.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,169$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(4.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,194.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(31,194.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $65,129$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,528,568$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,551,243.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,551,243.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $91,921$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(7.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,286.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(93,286.0\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,147,255$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $250,138$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259,269.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(259,269.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,422$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(3.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,733.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,733.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $213,617$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,799$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,867.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,867.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,743$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(307 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,846.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,846.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,085$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $177,778$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(3.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{170,069.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(170,069.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,081$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,001.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,001.7\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,016$ on 2020-05-19